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Identity and forecasting
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From: Charles Bayless <charles.bayless_at_ttmd.com>
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2014 12:59:13 -0500
I think part of this conversation is centered around a process that might not be working well - Forecasting
How do publishers estimate the likely size for the market of any particular book they publish? I do not know. Is it as simple as a gut feel/professional estimate? Alternatively, at the other end of the spectrum, do they perhaps use some sort of tool such as Analytica in order to do Bayesian analysis (a branch of statistics useful when data is incomplete and of uncertain quality) for forecasting? I would be interested in publisher's comments on the process.
The chief charge appears to be that publishers are missing a market that is underserved. The fact that there have been dedicated publishers focused on this market for some 20 years and it has not grown, calls that assumption into question.
On the other hand what I hear being voiced in our discussion is PSF, Presumptuous Stereotype Fatigue: Just because I am African American, don't assume I want to read more about Slavery, Civil Rights or Racism. Just because I am Jewish, don't assume I want to read more about the Immigrant Experience, Anti-Semitism or the Holocaust. Just because I am Chinese American, don't presume that I want to read something with someone who looks vaguely Asian.
I am also hearing SIB, Stereotype Incompatibility Blindness: Just because I am African American doesn't mean that I am not also professional and middle class. Just because I am Native American doesn't mean that I am not also a father and petroleum engineer. Just because I am . . .
So I wonder - where do PSF and SIB fit into the forecasting of market size. Perhaps the POC market hasn't grown because publishers have been locked into traditional stereotypes of what they think POC wish to read. As America becomes more diverse, so does the reading audience and how it chooses to identify itself. Perhaps it is time to recognize that how the Census chooses to define people is less and less compatible with how they define themselves.
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2014 12:59:13 -0500
I think part of this conversation is centered around a process that might not be working well - Forecasting
How do publishers estimate the likely size for the market of any particular book they publish? I do not know. Is it as simple as a gut feel/professional estimate? Alternatively, at the other end of the spectrum, do they perhaps use some sort of tool such as Analytica in order to do Bayesian analysis (a branch of statistics useful when data is incomplete and of uncertain quality) for forecasting? I would be interested in publisher's comments on the process.
The chief charge appears to be that publishers are missing a market that is underserved. The fact that there have been dedicated publishers focused on this market for some 20 years and it has not grown, calls that assumption into question.
On the other hand what I hear being voiced in our discussion is PSF, Presumptuous Stereotype Fatigue: Just because I am African American, don't assume I want to read more about Slavery, Civil Rights or Racism. Just because I am Jewish, don't assume I want to read more about the Immigrant Experience, Anti-Semitism or the Holocaust. Just because I am Chinese American, don't presume that I want to read something with someone who looks vaguely Asian.
I am also hearing SIB, Stereotype Incompatibility Blindness: Just because I am African American doesn't mean that I am not also professional and middle class. Just because I am Native American doesn't mean that I am not also a father and petroleum engineer. Just because I am . . .
So I wonder - where do PSF and SIB fit into the forecasting of market size. Perhaps the POC market hasn't grown because publishers have been locked into traditional stereotypes of what they think POC wish to read. As America becomes more diverse, so does the reading audience and how it chooses to identify itself. Perhaps it is time to recognize that how the Census chooses to define people is less and less compatible with how they define themselves.
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Received on Wed 12 Feb 2014 12:00:24 PM CST
