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Big Bang Theory of statistical diversity analysis and Res Ipsa Ioquitur
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From: Christine Taylor-Butler <kansascitymom_at_earthlink.net>
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2014 14:59:17 -0600
I'm responding to the suggestions re: data analysis, concrete examples and action plans centered around that data - all coming from publishers.
The wrong statistical model or analysis will lead to a flawed conclusion. "Emotions" aside - I offer an example of where sometimes common sense trumps a lot of manipulated data (and I would contend that if data driven analysis were effective in this case publishers would have solved the problem already.)
In an older episode of BIG BANG THEORY the waitress/actress Penny buys an Ikea type bookcase and solicits help to put it together. She is ignored by the nerds (CalTech, MIT, Princeton) who go off on their own and using data decide they can redesign the bookcase to be better and stronger. They leave to get metals, acetylene torches, and a number of items only available in a well-stocked CalTech Physics lab. Leaving Penny - the only one on the show grounded in the real world - to put the shelving together armed with a screwdriver and instructions.
It resonated because at MIT students were often found doing the same thing. (True story) When I was in college a number of my peers came back from a white water rafting trip. During the trip one of the canoes overturned and became trapped up against a large boulder in the middle of the water. The students all gathered with pen and pencil to create force diagrams, putting all their Physics and Calculus training to work. While the non-MIT person tethered herself to a tree, then swam out to retrieve the raft successfully. When she returned, the "nerds" were still on the shore working through (and arguing about) the right approach given the current of the water, the windspeed, whatever F=MA calculation they deemed suited to the task.
I'm saying that because I'm all for empirical analysis when done correctly and when there is some basic understanding of the root of the problem and what parts are as a lawyer would say Res Ipsa Ioquitur ("Speaks for Itself"). Said a former boss who started as a blue collar press operator in coaching me about how to ignore white collar MBA protocols for problem analysis, "Problems arise to send a message. Solve the problem and it will come back with a louder message." Using the same approach at the Harvard Development Office I discovered that the root of a problem in a department showing huge deficits was not that the customers didn't know about our products, but that we weren't giving them what they wanted. When I moved to KC, two years later, the department was profitable for the first time in a decade.
Hence - it isn't sufficient to just figure out how to sell more of what you are producing. What is important is to figure out why no one is BUYING what you are producing already even when they know about it.
The idea that we need to infiltrate more churches, etc. is fine. But without listening to those of us on the ground about what our community wants or why - the analysis may not give the results you are seeking.
.……Christine
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2014 14:59:17 -0600
I'm responding to the suggestions re: data analysis, concrete examples and action plans centered around that data - all coming from publishers.
The wrong statistical model or analysis will lead to a flawed conclusion. "Emotions" aside - I offer an example of where sometimes common sense trumps a lot of manipulated data (and I would contend that if data driven analysis were effective in this case publishers would have solved the problem already.)
In an older episode of BIG BANG THEORY the waitress/actress Penny buys an Ikea type bookcase and solicits help to put it together. She is ignored by the nerds (CalTech, MIT, Princeton) who go off on their own and using data decide they can redesign the bookcase to be better and stronger. They leave to get metals, acetylene torches, and a number of items only available in a well-stocked CalTech Physics lab. Leaving Penny - the only one on the show grounded in the real world - to put the shelving together armed with a screwdriver and instructions.
It resonated because at MIT students were often found doing the same thing. (True story) When I was in college a number of my peers came back from a white water rafting trip. During the trip one of the canoes overturned and became trapped up against a large boulder in the middle of the water. The students all gathered with pen and pencil to create force diagrams, putting all their Physics and Calculus training to work. While the non-MIT person tethered herself to a tree, then swam out to retrieve the raft successfully. When she returned, the "nerds" were still on the shore working through (and arguing about) the right approach given the current of the water, the windspeed, whatever F=MA calculation they deemed suited to the task.
I'm saying that because I'm all for empirical analysis when done correctly and when there is some basic understanding of the root of the problem and what parts are as a lawyer would say Res Ipsa Ioquitur ("Speaks for Itself"). Said a former boss who started as a blue collar press operator in coaching me about how to ignore white collar MBA protocols for problem analysis, "Problems arise to send a message. Solve the problem and it will come back with a louder message." Using the same approach at the Harvard Development Office I discovered that the root of a problem in a department showing huge deficits was not that the customers didn't know about our products, but that we weren't giving them what they wanted. When I moved to KC, two years later, the department was profitable for the first time in a decade.
Hence - it isn't sufficient to just figure out how to sell more of what you are producing. What is important is to figure out why no one is BUYING what you are producing already even when they know about it.
The idea that we need to infiltrate more churches, etc. is fine. But without listening to those of us on the ground about what our community wants or why - the analysis may not give the results you are seeking.
.……Christine
---
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Received on Sat 08 Feb 2014 02:59:37 PM CST
