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Re: an energized community and an informed community
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From: bookmarch_at_aol.com
Date: Mon, 03 Mar 2014 08:33:52 -0500 (EST)
Though there has been considerable heat this past month, there has also been light. From a generalized dissatisfaction, many CCBC members have moved towards plans of action and activity. But at several points questions of $ have come up -- from Debbie's question about whether a children's book artist can make a living on his/her work to the report about the Next Big Thing conference in NYC, to the cautions Charles and I raised about retail.
Here are the basic economic facts of book publishing from a creator's POV:
If a book sells at $15 -- a low hardcover picture book price. And the author and artist split a (normal) 10% royalty, the artist earns .75 a book. Typically an artist will have at best 2 books a year selling as frontlist (first publishing season or year) -- thus high retail sales. (Remember from the CCBC stats, 5,000 K-12 books published a year, so after a year of being one of 5,000, a book has to compete for attention with a new-on-the-block set of 5,000 books, so the book is one of 10,000 and so forth) So let us say each sells 5,000 copies the first year, the artist earns out $3750 (twice) against whatever advances s/he was paid. In order to reach a "living" the artist either needs to have many backlist books doing very, very well -- which, at a minimum, takes time (and of course backlist may be in paperback, thus lower cover price and lower royalty)-- or needs to sell many, many more books -- say the 20,000 cutoff that one might imagine a large publisher using. At 20,000 sales the artist earns $15,000 per book or $30,000 -- which means that between the larger advance s/he can command and the growing backlist, that artist can begin to make a living -- perhaps supplemented by paid school visits, a prize from time to time, etc.
Now you may say -- why only $15? Ok, now put on your consumer, or library/school hat -- how many $15 books do you buy a year? The CCBC "receives" 3200 books a year, it does not purchase them. You may say, ok, why 5,000, why not 50,000 -- well if you want those numbers simply look at the various children's and YA best seller lists in PW or the New York Times -- you will see everything that CCBC-net has spent this month describing as clogging up publishing. You may say, why "frontlist" -- why not look at a book over 2 years, 5 years, 10 years -- wonderful. As a nonfiction author I love backlist sales. But they are slow, slow, and slower. You may say, why don't schools and libraries buy high quality books in large numbers? They do -- but all of you librarians, you know that every book purchase is a bind -- one more copy of a book that is sure to have many eager readers (next in a hot series, say) or one book that you know meets a great need but requires more effort. Of course you buy some of each -- some. So we are back to numbers closer to 5,000 than 50,000.
The reason to bring up these question is not to discourage activism or encourage complacency but rather to let everyone survey the real field and thus face the real challenges -- which is what successful advocates do. Be clear about your focus -- retail, schools, libraries, awards -- which? how? What are the levers that can make change in each segment, each market? Begin with knowledge, not blame.
I must say though that, as I have said all month, I feel my friends at the CCBC do a disservice by releasing their broad, un-parsed numbers and then leaving it to me, to Charles, to Norma Jean, to people at large publishing houses to "defend" a market and to be accused of being prejudiced, blind, resistant to change. You want to know who created the first explicitly multicultural and international YA list at a major publishing house -- featuring books on and/or by Asian-American, African-American, Latino, LGBT subjects-authors, as well African, Asian, European books in translation (a native American book followed after I left)? I did -- with EDGE when I was at Holt.
A difference is views is not a difference of heart.
Marc Aronson
-----Original Message----- From: Norma Jean Sawicki <nsawicki_at_nyc.rr.com> To: Christine Taylor-Butler <kansascitymom_at_earthlink.net> Cc: CCBC-Net Network <ccbc-net_at_lists.wisc.edu> Sent: Sun, Mar 2, 2014 8:04 pm Subject: Re: [ccbc-net] Supply & Demand & Forecasting
Christine…
Your lens is not the only lens through which one sees the issues discussed this month nor should it be. The following was unnecessary, and unfortunate…Norma Jean
On Mar 2, 2014, at 7:34 PM, Christine Taylor-Butler wrote:
> Charles,
>
> I am curious, after re-reading some of your posts, if you are currently
working on a project for a corporate client. Your conclusions certainly seem skewed in that direction.
>
> I also wonder if you could stop labeling all the professionals on this list
(there are more than 2,000 of them) as if they are a homogeneous in terms of employment or motive. That clearly has not been the case Nor is it valid to continue to imply those who are aren't a source of significant revenue.
>
> I also noted that you included - in poor taste - the concept of institutional
buyers acquiring books to make them available to readers "for free." While I know you'll say I misinterpreted the statement, I've worked with consultants long enough to know nothing is without meaning. But I would also suggest that despite small budgets, schools and libraries are actually major players in introducing books to children. More effective, often, than bookstores because of the length of their exposure to them (often daily).
>
> And even if the list were solely institutional (again - it is not) we are
all, in the end, retail consumers - many of us expressing frustration with lack of content that meets our needs, or clients needs or our own children's needs.. I am often tickled when I am criticized for not "liking" what some publisher picked out for me. I don't know what other industry thrives on that assumption. Certainly my former employer is learning that hard lesson now, and one prior to that is now bankrupt. Interestingly enough, all of us should be more in tune with what publishers have produced. The fact that we are not speaks to poor visibility. If we don't know about it and share the data on this list - then how on earth does a consumer not tapped in to the network or a reader of trade publications know about it?
>
> As for supply and demand this is more about ELASTICITY of demand. I would
posit that with the demographics of children being born in the U.S. shifting away from dominant culture and with the media (publishers, etc.) continuing to act as if it isn't - there is significant DISCONNECT in what publisher's models are achieving. You often conclude there are no sales because there are no buyers. I would conclude that publishers set up a poor model decades ago and have failed to adequately compensate for it. At some point their primary buyer will become the minority in this country and ethnic buyers will simply spend their economic clout on competitive products.
>
> One need only look at the slim margins, the consolidations and the
bankruptcies to see that asking a publisher to explain the disconnect arising from their "rigorous" sales forecasting is specious at best.
>
> Most successful consultants poll the end-users about their preferences and
buying patterns. They ask THEM what the disconnect is between publisher assumptions and consumer needs. They don't put them in a box and condemn them for not being profitable because they don't like the product and won't spend their money on it.
>
> Marketing lesson over. But frankly - that's B-school first year
stuff……Christine
>
>
>
Date: Mon, 03 Mar 2014 08:33:52 -0500 (EST)
Though there has been considerable heat this past month, there has also been light. From a generalized dissatisfaction, many CCBC members have moved towards plans of action and activity. But at several points questions of $ have come up -- from Debbie's question about whether a children's book artist can make a living on his/her work to the report about the Next Big Thing conference in NYC, to the cautions Charles and I raised about retail.
Here are the basic economic facts of book publishing from a creator's POV:
If a book sells at $15 -- a low hardcover picture book price. And the author and artist split a (normal) 10% royalty, the artist earns .75 a book. Typically an artist will have at best 2 books a year selling as frontlist (first publishing season or year) -- thus high retail sales. (Remember from the CCBC stats, 5,000 K-12 books published a year, so after a year of being one of 5,000, a book has to compete for attention with a new-on-the-block set of 5,000 books, so the book is one of 10,000 and so forth) So let us say each sells 5,000 copies the first year, the artist earns out $3750 (twice) against whatever advances s/he was paid. In order to reach a "living" the artist either needs to have many backlist books doing very, very well -- which, at a minimum, takes time (and of course backlist may be in paperback, thus lower cover price and lower royalty)-- or needs to sell many, many more books -- say the 20,000 cutoff that one might imagine a large publisher using. At 20,000 sales the artist earns $15,000 per book or $30,000 -- which means that between the larger advance s/he can command and the growing backlist, that artist can begin to make a living -- perhaps supplemented by paid school visits, a prize from time to time, etc.
Now you may say -- why only $15? Ok, now put on your consumer, or library/school hat -- how many $15 books do you buy a year? The CCBC "receives" 3200 books a year, it does not purchase them. You may say, ok, why 5,000, why not 50,000 -- well if you want those numbers simply look at the various children's and YA best seller lists in PW or the New York Times -- you will see everything that CCBC-net has spent this month describing as clogging up publishing. You may say, why "frontlist" -- why not look at a book over 2 years, 5 years, 10 years -- wonderful. As a nonfiction author I love backlist sales. But they are slow, slow, and slower. You may say, why don't schools and libraries buy high quality books in large numbers? They do -- but all of you librarians, you know that every book purchase is a bind -- one more copy of a book that is sure to have many eager readers (next in a hot series, say) or one book that you know meets a great need but requires more effort. Of course you buy some of each -- some. So we are back to numbers closer to 5,000 than 50,000.
The reason to bring up these question is not to discourage activism or encourage complacency but rather to let everyone survey the real field and thus face the real challenges -- which is what successful advocates do. Be clear about your focus -- retail, schools, libraries, awards -- which? how? What are the levers that can make change in each segment, each market? Begin with knowledge, not blame.
I must say though that, as I have said all month, I feel my friends at the CCBC do a disservice by releasing their broad, un-parsed numbers and then leaving it to me, to Charles, to Norma Jean, to people at large publishing houses to "defend" a market and to be accused of being prejudiced, blind, resistant to change. You want to know who created the first explicitly multicultural and international YA list at a major publishing house -- featuring books on and/or by Asian-American, African-American, Latino, LGBT subjects-authors, as well African, Asian, European books in translation (a native American book followed after I left)? I did -- with EDGE when I was at Holt.
A difference is views is not a difference of heart.
Marc Aronson
-----Original Message----- From: Norma Jean Sawicki <nsawicki_at_nyc.rr.com> To: Christine Taylor-Butler <kansascitymom_at_earthlink.net> Cc: CCBC-Net Network <ccbc-net_at_lists.wisc.edu> Sent: Sun, Mar 2, 2014 8:04 pm Subject: Re: [ccbc-net] Supply & Demand & Forecasting
Christine…
Your lens is not the only lens through which one sees the issues discussed this month nor should it be. The following was unnecessary, and unfortunate…Norma Jean
On Mar 2, 2014, at 7:34 PM, Christine Taylor-Butler wrote:
> Charles,
>
> I am curious, after re-reading some of your posts, if you are currently
working on a project for a corporate client. Your conclusions certainly seem skewed in that direction.
>
> I also wonder if you could stop labeling all the professionals on this list
(there are more than 2,000 of them) as if they are a homogeneous in terms of employment or motive. That clearly has not been the case Nor is it valid to continue to imply those who are aren't a source of significant revenue.
>
> I also noted that you included - in poor taste - the concept of institutional
buyers acquiring books to make them available to readers "for free." While I know you'll say I misinterpreted the statement, I've worked with consultants long enough to know nothing is without meaning. But I would also suggest that despite small budgets, schools and libraries are actually major players in introducing books to children. More effective, often, than bookstores because of the length of their exposure to them (often daily).
>
> And even if the list were solely institutional (again - it is not) we are
all, in the end, retail consumers - many of us expressing frustration with lack of content that meets our needs, or clients needs or our own children's needs.. I am often tickled when I am criticized for not "liking" what some publisher picked out for me. I don't know what other industry thrives on that assumption. Certainly my former employer is learning that hard lesson now, and one prior to that is now bankrupt. Interestingly enough, all of us should be more in tune with what publishers have produced. The fact that we are not speaks to poor visibility. If we don't know about it and share the data on this list - then how on earth does a consumer not tapped in to the network or a reader of trade publications know about it?
>
> As for supply and demand this is more about ELASTICITY of demand. I would
posit that with the demographics of children being born in the U.S. shifting away from dominant culture and with the media (publishers, etc.) continuing to act as if it isn't - there is significant DISCONNECT in what publisher's models are achieving. You often conclude there are no sales because there are no buyers. I would conclude that publishers set up a poor model decades ago and have failed to adequately compensate for it. At some point their primary buyer will become the minority in this country and ethnic buyers will simply spend their economic clout on competitive products.
>
> One need only look at the slim margins, the consolidations and the
bankruptcies to see that asking a publisher to explain the disconnect arising from their "rigorous" sales forecasting is specious at best.
>
> Most successful consultants poll the end-users about their preferences and
buying patterns. They ask THEM what the disconnect is between publisher assumptions and consumer needs. They don't put them in a box and condemn them for not being profitable because they don't like the product and won't spend their money on it.
>
> Marketing lesson over. But frankly - that's B-school first year
stuff……Christine
>
>
>
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